Renegade
Arkansas Derby, Mar. 28, Oaklawn, 1 1/8m, dirt: won with a last-to-first rally and a visually dominant late move.
Derby translation: The closer's kick is real. A hot Derby pace helps, but the rail means traffic is the main obstacle.
Kentucky Derby (Grade I)
Kentucky Derby 2026 — deep research
Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY · Saturday, May 2, 2026 — ~6:57 p.m. ET post · 1¼ miles, dirt
Updated May 2, 2026 at 4:45 p.m. ET. Odds and entries can change before post time.
Executive summary
The field is 19 runners after scratches (including The Puma on Derby morning; no fourth alternate drew in). As of race-day reporting, the main track was fast with cool mid-50s weather and a chance of showers near post—handicap fast first, wet-fast second.
Post time 6:57 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs, Louisville. The clearest win candidates on public form: Renegade, Commandment, So Happy, Further Ado, and Chief Wallabee—plus Emerging Market just below for proven distance and upside.
Odds in this report are a late-afternoon TwinSpires-sourced snapshot from the NBC field page (~4:45 p.m. ET May 2); check the live board before any wager.
Public speed leaders include Commandment, Chief Wallabee, So Happy, Litmus Test, and Pavlovian. The best blend of speed, trip, and Derby shape: Commandment, Renegade, So Happy, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, and Emerging Market.
Rankings at a glance
Most likely winners
Best betting values
Safest underneath / exotics
Practical betting view (author)
- Best win bet: Commandment — best mix of probability and price; tactical speed and form over Chief Wallabee.
- Best value win: Chief Wallabee — Mott trajectory and 12-1 for a cleaner trip vs. Commandment.
- Best longshot: Albus — Wood through traffic; 51-1 for a swing.
- Often overbet: Danon Bourbon — translation risk underpriced at 14-1.
- Exacta / trifecta keys: Commandment, Renegade, So Happy, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market as spine; add Albus and Wonder Dean deeper.
- Defensive underneath: Golden Tempo, Pavlovian, Potente, Albus, Wonder Dean.
- Fade / underweight (win): Danon Bourbon, Litmus Test, Great White, Ocelli, Robusta; Incredibolt to a lesser extent.
Full field
Race-day snapshot; odds and entries can change. See research document for source notes.
| Post | Horse | Odds | ML | Impl. | Style | Last | Fig | Concern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 5-1 | 4-1 | 16.7% | Closer | Arkansas Derby (1st) | 97 | Rail draw for a deep closer |
| 2 | Albus | 51-1 | 30-1 | 1.9% | Off pace | Wood Memorial (1st) | 91 | Lighter figure profile than top choices |
| 3 | Intrepido | 59-1 | 50-1 | 1.7% | Stalker | Santa Anita Derby (4th) | n/a public | Has not shown enough top dirt-route punch lately |
| 4 | Litmus Test | 37-1 | 50-1 | 2.6% | Tactical | Arkansas Derby (7th) | 102 | Last race was poor |
| 5 | Commandment | 7-1 | 6-1 | 12.5% | Stalker | Florida Derby (1st) | 103 | New rider, pace pressure |
| 6 | Danon Bourbon | 14-1 | 20-1 | 6.7% | Front runner | Fukuryu S. (1st) | n/a public | First U.S. start, unknown translation |
| 7 | So Happy | 6-1 | 15-1 | 14.3% | Stalker | Santa Anita Derby (1st) | 101 | Only a few starts, first 19-horse cavalry charge |
| 8 | Wonder Dean | 20-1 | 30-1 | 4.8% | Stalker | UAE Derby (1st) | 97 | UAE Derby path is historically poor in Louisville |
| 9 | Incredibolt | 37-1 | 20-1 | 2.6% | Stalker | Virginia Derby (1st) | n/a public | Form volatility |
| 10 | Chief Wallabee | 12-1 | 8-1 | 7.7% | Pressing stalker | Florida Derby (3rd) | 103 | Only three career starts |
| 11 | Potente | 26-1 | 20-1 | 3.7% | Speed | Santa Anita Derby (2nd) | n/a public | Pace pressure |
| 12 | Emerging Market | 12-1 | 15-1 | 7.7% | Mid-pack | Louisiana Derby (1st) | n/a public | Extremely light on experience |
| 13 | Pavlovian | 49-1 | 30-1 | 2.0% | Front runner | Louisiana Derby (2nd) | 101 | Looks pace vulnerable |
| 14 | Six Speed | 45-1 | 50-1 | 2.2% | Front runner | UAE Derby (2nd) | n/a public | UAE Derby alumni are 0-for-21 in the Derby since 2000 |
| 15 | Further Ado | 7-1 | 6-1 | 12.5% | Stalker | Blue Grass (1st) | 98 | Outside draw, trip-dependent |
| 16 | Golden Tempo | 45-1 | 30-1 | 2.2% | Deep closer | Louisiana Derby (3rd) | n/a public | Needs a collapse and racing luck |
| 17 | Great White | 41-1 | 50-1 | 2.4% | Stalker | Blue Grass (5th) | n/a public | Synthetic-heavy résumé, no dirt win |
| 18 | Ocelli | 50-1 | 50-1 | 2.0% | Stalker | Wood Memorial (3rd) | n/a public | Still a maiden |
| 19 | Robusta | 50-1 | 50-1 | 2.0% | Front runner | Santa Anita Derby (7th) | n/a public | Class deficit, pace pressure |
Public speed & stamina snapshot
Not a substitute for full PPs; figures incomplete for some runners in free public sources.
| Horse | Best fig | Trend | Route proof |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commandment | 103 | Forward pattern, won Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby | Yes, won Florida Derby at 1 1/8m |
| Chief Wallabee | 103 | Still improving, chased Commandment twice | Yes, 3rd Florida Derby at 1 1/8m |
| Litmus Test | 102 | Juvenile class, but regressed in Arkansas Derby | Yes, routed repeatedly, but latest was poor |
| So Happy | 101 | Major forward move from sprint star to Santa Anita Derby winner | Yes, won Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8m |
| Pavlovian | 101 | Blinkers changed him into a pace horse | Yes, 2nd Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16m |
| Further Ado | 98 | Blue Grass breakout, Churchill foundation | Yes, won Blue Grass at 1 1/8m |
| Renegade | 97 | Big visual leap in Arkansas Derby, strong closer | Yes, won Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8m |
| Wonder Dean | 97 | Consistent overseas route form | Yes, won UAE Derby at 1 3/16m |
| Albus | 91 | Improving rapidly | Yes, won Wood Memorial at 1 1/8m |
| Emerging Market | n/a public fig surfaced | Huge upside off only two starts | Yes, won Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16m |
Last-race review
Albus
Wood Memorial, Apr. 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/8m, dirt: rallied through traffic for an upset.
Derby translation: He stays on, and the Wood proved he can pass horses. He still needs another step on raw speed.
Intrepido
Santa Anita Derby, Apr. 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8m, dirt: finished 4th, never seriously threatening the top pair.
Derby translation: He looks more like an underneath piece than a win threat unless the fast local workout signals hidden improvement.
Litmus Test
Arkansas Derby, Mar. 28, Oaklawn, 1 1/8m, dirt: distant 7th after a weaker-than-expected run.
Derby translation: If he rebounds to his juvenile form he can outrun his odds, but the latest race says he is an underlay at current prices.
Commandment
Florida Derby, Mar. 28, Gulfstream, 1 1/8m, dirt: won again after earlier edging Chief Wallabee by a neck in the Fountain of Youth via an inside opening.
Derby translation: Tactical speed plus repeat Grade 1 quality makes him one of the most likely winners.
Danon Bourbon
Fukuryu S., Mar. 28, Nakayama, route dirt: stayed unbeaten, all three wins by a combined margin of more than 18 lengths.
Derby translation: He has raw pace and upside, but the Japan-to-Churchill translation is still a guess.
So Happy
Santa Anita Derby, Apr. 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8m, dirt: beat Potente decisively after earlier flashing elite sprint speed in the San Vicente.
Derby translation: He looks like a genuine classic mover, not just a sprint horse stretching out.
Wonder Dean
UAE Derby, Mar. 28, Meydan, 1 3/16m, dirt: reeled in pacesetter Six Speed and won.
Derby translation: The distance is a big plus. The historical UAE-to-Derby strike rate is the negative.
Incredibolt
Virginia Derby, Mar. 14, Colonial Downs, 1 1/8m, dirt: rebounded sharply and came home strongly.
Derby translation: He is usable underneath if you believe the Holy Bull flop is an outlier, not the truth.
Chief Wallabee
Florida Derby, Mar. 28, Gulfstream, 1 1/8m, dirt: 3rd after twice running well behind Commandment, including a wider trip in the Fountain of Youth.
Derby translation: He is the kind of lightly raced colt who often peaks on Derby Day.
Potente
Santa Anita Derby, Apr. 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8m, dirt: 2nd to So Happy after winning the San Felipe.
Derby translation: He is fast enough to matter early, but the Derby pace likely gets less comfortable.
Emerging Market
Louisiana Derby, Mar. 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16m, dirt: loomed in the stretch and got up by a head over Pavlovian.
Derby translation: He already answered the stamina question and still has plenty of upside.
Pavlovian
Louisiana Derby, Mar. 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16m, dirt: set the tone and was outdueled late by Emerging Market.
Derby translation: He can carry speed, but the Derby figure depends on whether he gets hounded.
Six Speed
UAE Derby, Mar. 28, Meydan, 1 3/16m, dirt: set the pace and was reeled in by Wonder Dean.
Derby translation: He is a pace ingredient more than a likeliest winner, though local training reports are solid.
Further Ado
Blue Grass, Apr. 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8m, dirt: advanced on the far turn and blew the race apart, drawing off by 11 lengths.
Derby translation: If that race is real, he is a major win candidate; Churchill form makes it easier to trust.
Golden Tempo
Louisiana Derby, Mar. 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16m, dirt: deep-closing 3rd.
Derby translation: He needs a serious pace meltdown, but he is one of the more logical bomb closers.
Great White
Blue Grass, Apr. 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8m, dirt: 5th after synthetic success earlier in the season.
Derby translation: He looks more like a grinder for the bottom of exotics than a win threat.
Ocelli
Wood Memorial, Apr. 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/8m, dirt: 3rd, still winless.
Derby translation: The maiden status matters. He can pass tired horses, but winning is another matter.
Robusta
Santa Anita Derby, Apr. 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8m, dirt: 7th.
Derby translation: Fresh longshot, but class and pace both work against him.
Documented head-to-heads
| Race | Date | Runners | Order | Trip | Repeatable? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain of Youth | Feb. 28 | Commandment, Chief Wallabee | Commandment over Chief Wallabee by a neck | Commandment got the inside opening, Chief Wallabee raced the wider trip | Slightly flattering to Commandment, but still a legitimate edge |
| Florida Derby | Mar. 28 | Commandment, Chief Wallabee | Commandment over Chief Wallabee | Commandment confirmed superiority at 1 1/8 miles | Repeatable unless Chief Wallabee jumps forward again |
| Arkansas Derby | Mar. 28 | Renegade, Litmus Test | Renegade well ahead of Litmus Test | Renegade's rally was explosive, Litmus Test never fired | Looks highly repeatable |
| Santa Anita Derby | Apr. 4 | So Happy, Potente, Robusta | So Happy over Potente over Robusta | So Happy finished strongest, Potente held well, Robusta was outclassed | Looks repeatable, especially over Robusta |
| Louisiana Derby | Mar. 21 | Emerging Market, Pavlovian, Golden Tempo | Emerging Market over Pavlovian over Golden Tempo | Emerging Market wore down a pace horse, Golden Tempo closed from farther back | Repeatable, though pace can compress margins |
| UAE Derby | Mar. 28 | Wonder Dean, Six Speed | Wonder Dean over Six Speed | Six Speed showed speed, Wonder Dean outstayed him late | Repeatable if both get pressured similarly |
| Wood Memorial | Apr. 4 | Albus, Ocelli | Albus over Ocelli | Albus handled traffic and finished better | Repeatable unless Ocelli makes a major new top |
| Blue Grass | Apr. 4 | Further Ado, Great White | Further Ado over Great White | Further Ado destroyed the race late | Strongly repeatable |
Connections & conditions
Strong big-stage profiles: Pletcher / Irad Ortiz on Renegade; Brad Cox with Luis Saez on Commandment and John Velazquez on Further Ado; Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado on Chief Wallabee; Chad Brown / Flavien Prat on Emerging Market; Mike Smith on So Happy. NBC noted Saez had never ridden Commandment before—a small trip variable. Public experts leaned Commandment and Renegade but not unanimously (e.g. some Chief Wallabee support, some Renegade fades).
Handicap as fast first, wet-fast second. Distance-fit standouts: Emerging Market, Wonder Dean, Pavlovian, Six Speed, Golden Tempo at 1 3/16m; Renegade, Commandment, So Happy, Further Ado off strong 1 1/8m U.S. preps.
Value heat map
Column colors encode opinion: strong / mild value, fair, or overbet. Hover rows for narrative.
| Horse | Odds | Implied | Fair win % | Fair odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renegade | 5-1 | 16.7% | 16.0% | 5.2-1 | Fair price |
| Albus | 51-1 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 32-1 | Mild value |
| Intrepido | 59-1 | 1.7% | 1.5% | 66-1 | Fair price |
| Litmus Test | 37-1 | 2.6% | 1.0% | 99-1 | Overbet |
| Commandment | 7-1 | 12.5% | 16.0% | 5.2-1 | Strong value |
| Danon Bourbon | 14-1 | 6.7% | 4.0% | 24-1 | Overbet |
| So Happy | 6-1 | 14.3% | 14.0% | 6.1-1 | Fair price |
| Wonder Dean | 20-1 | 4.8% | 5.0% | 19-1 | Fair price |
| Incredibolt | 37-1 | 2.6% | 1.0% | 99-1 | Overbet |
| Chief Wallabee | 12-1 | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.1-1 | Mild value |
| Potente | 26-1 | 3.7% | 3.0% | 32-1 | Fair price |
| Emerging Market | 12-1 | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.8-1 | Mild value |
| Pavlovian | 49-1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 66-1 | Fair price |
| Six Speed | 45-1 | 2.2% | 1.0% | 99-1 | Fair price |
| Further Ado | 7-1 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 7-1 | Fair price |
| Golden Tempo | 45-1 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 66-1 | Fair price |
| Great White | 41-1 | 2.4% | 0.5% | 199-1 | Overbet |
| Ocelli | 50-1 | 2.0% | 0.5% | 199-1 | Overbet |
| Robusta | 50-1 | 2.0% | 0.5% | 199-1 | Overbet |
Hover a row to see pricing reasoning.
Public speed figures
Bars scale to 103 (top public figure in this set). Hover for trend notes. Missing figures show as N/A.
Commandment103
Litmus Test102
So Happy101
Pavlovian101
Renegade97
Albus91
Emerging Marketn/a public fig surfaced
Pace map (lanes)
Legitimate to hot early pressure: Danon Bourbon, Potente, Pavlovian, Six Speed, and Robusta want speed; Commandment and So Happy can stalk; Wonder Dean in the first chasing flight. Favors Renegade, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, and Golden Tempo if they avoid traffic.
Hot pace helps
Renegade, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Albus
Moderate pace helps
Commandment, So Happy, Wonder Dean, Danon Bourbon, Potente
Front / duel zone
Danon Bourbon, Potente, Pavlovian, Six Speed, Robusta
First stalking flight
Commandment, So Happy, Wonder Dean, Chief Wallabee, Intrepido
Mid-pack / second flight
Emerging Market, Incredibolt, Albus, Great White, Ocelli
Back half / closers
Renegade, Further Ado, Golden Tempo, Litmus Test
Renegade's rail is uncomfortable for a deep closer; Further Ado must work out a trip from out wide; Pavlovian and Six Speed are exposed in a true duel; Albus needs a clean lane at the right moment.
Head-to-head matrix
Documented meetings among current starters. Darker cells = more wins vs. that rival.
| Winner | Litmus Test | Chief Wallabee | Potente | Six Speed | Pavlovian | Golden Tempo | Great White | Ocelli | Robusta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renegade | |||||||||
| Commandment | |||||||||
| So Happy | |||||||||
| Potente | |||||||||
| Wonder Dean | |||||||||
| Emerging Market | |||||||||
| Pavlovian | |||||||||
| Further Ado | |||||||||
| Albus |
Hover or focus a cell for a screen-reader-friendly description.
Horse-by-horse
Expand any row for connections, prep notes, last-race recap, and pricing view.
#1 RenegadeCloser · 5-1 · Fair priceExpand
- Connections
- Irad Ortiz Jr. / Todd Pletcher
- Last prep
- Arkansas Derby — 1st (fig 97)
- Upside
- Best late kick in the field
- Main concern
- Rail draw for a deep closer
Last race
Arkansas Derby, Mar. 28, Oaklawn, 1 1/8m, dirt: won with a last-to-first rally and a visually dominant late move.
Derby read: The closer's kick is real. A hot Derby pace helps, but the rail means traffic is the main obstacle.
Value view
Fair ~5.2-1 (16.0% win prob) vs market 5-1 (16.7%).
Best closer, but rail and trip risk mean no edge at current price
#2 AlbusOff pace · 51-1 · Mild valueExpand
- Connections
- Manny Franco / Riley Mott
- Last prep
- Wood Memorial — 1st (fig 91)
- Upside
- Improving, traffic-tested, big price
- Main concern
- Lighter figure profile than top choices
Last race
Wood Memorial, Apr. 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/8m, dirt: rallied through traffic for an upset.
Derby read: He stays on, and the Wood proved he can pass horses. He still needs another step on raw speed.
Value view
Fair ~32-1 (3.0% win prob) vs market 51-1 (1.9%).
Wood showed traffic handling and late punch; market may discount too heavily
#3 IntrepidoStalker · 59-1 · Fair priceExpand
- Connections
- Hector Berrios / Jeff Mullins
- Last prep
- Santa Anita Derby — 4th (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Sharp Churchill work hints at hidden form
- Main concern
- Has not shown enough top dirt-route punch lately
Last race
Santa Anita Derby, Apr. 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8m, dirt: finished 4th, never seriously threatening the top pair.
Derby read: He looks more like an underneath piece than a win threat unless the fast local workout signals hidden improvement.
Value view
Fair ~66-1 (1.5% win prob) vs market 59-1 (1.7%).
Needs more than a fast workout to scare the top tiers
#4 Litmus TestTactical · 37-1 · OverbetExpand
- Connections
- Martin Garcia / Bob Baffert
- Last prep
- Arkansas Derby — 7th (fig 102)
- Upside
- Juvenile class, Baffert barn
- Main concern
- Last race was poor
Last race
Arkansas Derby, Mar. 28, Oaklawn, 1 1/8m, dirt: distant 7th after a weaker-than-expected run.
Derby read: If he rebounds to his juvenile form he can outrun his odds, but the latest race says he is an underlay at current prices.
Value view
Fair ~99-1 (1.0% win prob) vs market 37-1 (2.6%).
Juvenile class, but current price asks you to forgive too much recent dirt-route form
#5 CommandmentStalker · 7-1 · Strong valueExpand
- Connections
- Luis Saez / Brad Cox
- Last prep
- Florida Derby — 1st (fig 103)
- Upside
- Tactical speed plus best public U.S. figure
- Main concern
- New rider, pace pressure
Last race
Florida Derby, Mar. 28, Gulfstream, 1 1/8m, dirt: won again after earlier edging Chief Wallabee by a neck in the Fountain of Youth via an inside opening.
Derby read: Tactical speed plus repeat Grade 1 quality makes him one of the most likely winners.
Value view
Fair ~5.2-1 (16.0% win prob) vs market 7-1 (12.5%).
Best public speed, tactical trip, repeated quality against real rivals
#6 Danon BourbonFront runner · 14-1 · OverbetExpand
- Connections
- Atsuya Nishimura / Manabu Ikezoe
- Last prep
- Fukuryu S. — 1st (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Unbeaten, naturally quick
- Main concern
- First U.S. start, unknown translation
Last race
Fukuryu S., Mar. 28, Nakayama, route dirt: stayed unbeaten, all three wins by a combined margin of more than 18 lengths.
Derby read: He has raw pace and upside, but the Japan-to-Churchill translation is still a guess.
Value view
Fair ~24-1 (4.0% win prob) vs market 14-1 (6.7%).
Unbeaten angle is attractive, but price feels too short for translation risk
#7 So HappyStalker · 6-1 · Fair priceExpand
- Connections
- Mike Smith / Mark Glatt
- Last prep
- Santa Anita Derby — 1st (fig 101)
- Upside
- Fast, tractable, still upside
- Main concern
- Only a few starts, first 19-horse cavalry charge
Last race
Santa Anita Derby, Apr. 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8m, dirt: beat Potente decisively after earlier flashing elite sprint speed in the San Vicente.
Derby read: He looks like a genuine classic mover, not just a sprint horse stretching out.
Value view
Fair ~6.1-1 (14.0% win prob) vs market 6-1 (14.3%).
Absolutely can win, but the market has already found him
#8 Wonder DeanStalker · 20-1 · Fair priceExpand
- Connections
- Ryusei Sakai / Daisuke Takayanagi
- Last prep
- UAE Derby — 1st (fig 97)
- Upside
- Already won at 1 3/16 miles
- Main concern
- UAE Derby path is historically poor in Louisville
Last race
UAE Derby, Mar. 28, Meydan, 1 3/16m, dirt: reeled in pacesetter Six Speed and won.
Derby read: The distance is a big plus. The historical UAE-to-Derby strike rate is the negative.
Value view
Fair ~19-1 (5.0% win prob) vs market 20-1 (4.8%).
Respectable at the number, but not a clear overlay
#9 IncrediboltStalker · 37-1 · OverbetExpand
- Connections
- Jaime A. Torres / Riley Mott
- Last prep
- Virginia Derby — 1st (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Strong rebound last out, Churchill affinity angle
- Main concern
- Form volatility
Last race
Virginia Derby, Mar. 14, Colonial Downs, 1 1/8m, dirt: rebounded sharply and came home strongly.
Derby read: He is usable underneath if you believe the Holy Bull flop is an outlier, not the truth.
Value view
Fair ~99-1 (1.0% win prob) vs market 37-1 (2.6%).
Virginia Derby rebound is nice, but this price is still a bit too short
#10 Chief WallabeePressing stalker · 12-1 · Mild valueExpand
- Connections
- Junior Alvarado / Bill Mott
- Last prep
- Florida Derby — 3rd (fig 103)
- Upside
- Mott profile, foundation improving
- Main concern
- Only three career starts
Last race
Florida Derby, Mar. 28, Gulfstream, 1 1/8m, dirt: 3rd after twice running well behind Commandment, including a wider trip in the Fountain of Youth.
Derby read: He is the kind of lightly raced colt who often peaks on Derby Day.
Value view
Fair ~10.1-1 (9.0% win prob) vs market 12-1 (7.7%).
Powerful upside profile; better trip can close the gap on Commandment
#11 PotenteSpeed · 26-1 · Fair priceExpand
- Connections
- Juan Hernandez / Bob Baffert
- Last prep
- Santa Anita Derby — 2nd (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Pure speed, classy California form
- Main concern
- Pace pressure
Last race
Santa Anita Derby, Apr. 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8m, dirt: 2nd to So Happy after winning the San Felipe.
Derby read: He is fast enough to matter early, but the Derby pace likely gets less comfortable.
Value view
Fair ~32-1 (3.0% win prob) vs market 26-1 (3.7%).
Not impossible, just pace-vulnerable
#12 Emerging MarketMid-pack · 12-1 · Mild valueExpand
- Connections
- Flavien Prat / Chad Brown
- Last prep
- Louisiana Derby — 1st (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Already won at 1 3/16 miles
- Main concern
- Extremely light on experience
Last race
Louisiana Derby, Mar. 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16m, dirt: loomed in the stretch and got up by a head over Pavlovian.
Derby read: He already answered the stamina question and still has plenty of upside.
Value view
Fair ~10.8-1 (8.5% win prob) vs market 12-1 (7.7%).
Stamina already proven, still lightly raced enough to improve
#13 PavlovianFront runner · 49-1 · Fair priceExpand
- Connections
- Edwin Maldonado / Doug O'Neill
- Last prep
- Louisiana Derby — 2nd (fig 101)
- Upside
- If he clears, he can stick around
- Main concern
- Looks pace vulnerable
Last race
Louisiana Derby, Mar. 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16m, dirt: set the tone and was outdueled late by Emerging Market.
Derby read: He can carry speed, but the Derby figure depends on whether he gets hounded.
Value view
Fair ~66-1 (1.5% win prob) vs market 49-1 (2.0%).
Underneath speed, not a win-bet priority
#14 Six SpeedFront runner · 45-1 · Fair priceExpand
- Connections
- Brian Hernandez Jr. / Bhupat Seemar
- Last prep
- UAE Derby — 2nd (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Fast, fit, works well locally
- Main concern
- UAE Derby alumni are 0-for-21 in the Derby since 2000
Last race
UAE Derby, Mar. 28, Meydan, 1 3/16m, dirt: set the pace and was reeled in by Wonder Dean.
Derby read: He is a pace ingredient more than a likeliest winner, though local training reports are solid.
Value view
Fair ~99-1 (1.0% win prob) vs market 45-1 (2.2%).
Live early, but UAE-to-Derby history is severe
#15 Further AdoStalker · 7-1 · Fair priceExpand
- Connections
- John Velazquez / Brad Cox
- Last prep
- Blue Grass — 1st (fig 98)
- Upside
- Churchill winner with best last-race visual outside the top tier
- Main concern
- Outside draw, trip-dependent
Last race
Blue Grass, Apr. 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8m, dirt: advanced on the far turn and blew the race apart, drawing off by 11 lengths.
Derby read: If that race is real, he is a major win candidate; Churchill form makes it easier to trust.
Value view
Fair ~7-1 (12.5% win prob) vs market 7-1 (12.5%).
Properly priced, still extremely usable because of Churchill plus Blue Grass form
#16 Golden TempoDeep closer · 45-1 · Fair priceExpand
- Connections
- Jose Ortiz / Cherie DeVaux
- Last prep
- Louisiana Derby — 3rd (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Curlin stamina, late kick
- Main concern
- Needs a collapse and racing luck
Last race
Louisiana Derby, Mar. 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16m, dirt: deep-closing 3rd.
Derby read: He needs a serious pace meltdown, but he is one of the more logical bomb closers.
Value view
Fair ~66-1 (1.5% win prob) vs market 45-1 (2.2%).
Better exotic horse than win horse
#17 Great WhiteStalker · 41-1 · OverbetExpand
- Connections
- Alex Achard / John Ennis
- Last prep
- Blue Grass — 5th (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Stamina and toughness if chaos erupts
- Main concern
- Synthetic-heavy résumé, no dirt win
Last race
Blue Grass, Apr. 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8m, dirt: 5th after synthetic success earlier in the season.
Derby read: He looks more like a grinder for the bottom of exotics than a win threat.
Value view
Fair ~199-1 (0.5% win prob) vs market 41-1 (2.4%).
Synthetic résumé and no dirt win make even a big number look too short
#18 OcelliStalker · 50-1 · OverbetExpand
- Connections
- Joe Ramos / Whit Beckman
- Last prep
- Wood Memorial — 3rd (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Can save ground and pass tired horses
- Main concern
- Still a maiden
Last race
Wood Memorial, Apr. 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/8m, dirt: 3rd, still winless.
Derby read: The maiden status matters. He can pass tired horses, but winning is another matter.
Value view
Fair ~199-1 (0.5% win prob) vs market 50-1 (2.0%).
Maiden status is a real negative in this spot
#19 RobustaFront runner · 50-1 · OverbetExpand
- Connections
- Emisael Jaramillo / Doug O'Neill
- Last prep
- Santa Anita Derby — 7th (fig n/a public)
- Upside
- Fresh draw-in could outrun a dead-longshot tag
- Main concern
- Class deficit, pace pressure
Last race
Santa Anita Derby, Apr. 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/8m, dirt: 7th.
Derby read: Fresh longshot, but class and pace both work against him.
Value view
Fair ~199-1 (0.5% win prob) vs market 50-1 (2.0%).
Drawn in, but race shape and class both work against him
Disclaimer & limitations
This page is for entertainment and education only. It is not financial or wagering advice. Odds, entries, and track conditions change—verify everything against official sources and the live board before any decision.
Full last-three Brisnet/DRF/Equibase figure lines were not publicly accessible for every horse—speed uses best public figures from previews and profiles. Trip notes are richer for major prep winners than fringe starters. Odds are a snapshot, not final off.