MLB Sims
Experimental alphaFree during beta. Early, and still changing week to week.
What this is
A projection is one number: how many points a player is expected to score. It doesn't tell you how a whole lineup can go wrong, or how big the upside is when it goes right.
So we play the slate out thousands of times instead. Each run walks every plate appearance through a model of that matchup, then adds up what each team's hitters scored. Do that enough times and you get a range of outcomes, not just an average.
A top stack is whichever team's hitters score the most as a group in a given run. Run it thousands of times and every team gets a probability: how often they came out on top. That's what Top Stacks shows.
How the sims work goes deeper: how to read the ranges on each board, and what the sim can't tell you.
Simulation tools
What's coming
- Coverage. Sims run for the main slate only right now. We're watching whether it's worth extending to other slate types.
The optimizer still builds your lineups the same way it always has. The sim is a second, slower look at the slate. It doesn't override the optimizer.