MLB Player Props
A worked example of the props board: how a posted line, a market-implied probability, and a recent hit rate fit together in one row.
EXAMPLE BOARD -- illustrative numbers, not live odds. Every row below is a made-up player and line, hand-picked to show how the real board reads. No sportsbook has posted any of these numbers for any real game. .
Market-implied probability is the sportsbooks' own number: their posted price, converted to a probability and stripped of the built-in margin (the vig). It is the market's read on the outcome, not a prediction of ours.
Hit rate is how often a player has actually cleared a line in their recent graded games -- real box scores, not projections. A game with no result yet, or a voided line, is left out rather than counted as a loss.
| Player | Matchup | Market | Line | Mkt implied | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Idell | MIL vs CHC | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 61.4% | 70% (7/10) |
| Diego Salcedo | ARI vs SD | Hits | Over 0.5 | 68.9% | 80% (8/10) |
| Trevor Wakeman | BOS vs NYY | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 | 54.2% | 60% (6/10) |
| Cole Bannister | ATL vs PHI | Home Runs | Over 0.5 | 22.7% | 20% (2/10) |
| Julian Restrepo | HOU vs SEA | RBI | Over 0.5 | 57.8% | 50% (5/10) |
| Andre Voss | LAD vs SF | Stolen Bases | Over 0.5 | 31.5% | 30% (3/10) |
| Kenji Otsuka | TOR vs BAL | Walks | Over 0.5 | 44.9% | 40% (4/10) |
| Miles Halbert | CLE vs MIN | Hits Allowed | Under 5.5 | 52.3% | 60% (6/10) |
This example is fixed and does not change with the real slate. For research and entertainment only -- not a betting recommendation.