How we build this board
No outside model, no picks. Here is exactly what the number on the board is, where our projection comes from, and why a handful of markets don't have one yet.
The line is the book's, not ours
Every line on this board is a real number a sportsbook posted for that week's game. We don't adjust it or rank it. It shows up here alongside the best price we found across the books we track, and the consensus line across all of them.
Our projection: market-implied, not an outside model
For most markets, we build our own projection for the stat behind the line — passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, passing touchdowns — from the full board of odds across every market and book we track for that player, not a single book's quote. It's our own number, derived from the market rather than handed to us by it, which is why we show it next to the line instead of as a replacement for it.
The gap is our projection minus the line, signed toward whichever side is shown. A positive gap means our number sits on that side of the market's own number; a negative gap means it doesn't. It is not a pick, and it is not weighted by how confident we are — it's arithmetic on two numbers, shown so you can judge it yourself.
Some markets show no projection — on purpose
Rushing touchdowns and Anytime TD don't have a projection column populated yet. We don't have a touchdown-rate component in our projection model for those markets today, so rather than show a number we don't actually have, we show nothing. The line and the hit-rate history for those markets are still real and still shown — only the projection is absent, and it will populate the moment that component exists.
Hit rate
Hit % on the board is how often this side has cleared tonight's posted line over the player's last 5 games, applied retroactively. It comes from graded results, not projections, and it does not predict future outcomes.
Open a row and you'll also see the season-to-date and all-time record for that side — each printed as a real count (wins out of graded games), never a bare percentage with nothing behind it. A market with zero graded games shows a dash instead of a made-up rate. We don't blend that season number with the last-5 read above into one combined score; they answer different questions, so they stay separate.
NFL lines aren't always captured close to kickoff
Some of the historical lines behind these hit rates were captured well before kickoff — afternoon games and primetime slots especially, sometimes hours ahead of when the number actually closed. That makes an NFL hit-rate history a rougher read than a same-day number would be. Every graded game in the row's expanded view shows its own line and how long before kickoff it was captured, so you can judge that for yourself rather than take it on faith.