Aaron Nola Earned runs Props: Hit Rate & Trends
How often Aaron Nola has cleared a earned runs number in settled games, built from our own game logs. Updated August 30, 2026.
Over Earned runs
- All-time hit rate
- 53%
- 2026 season
- 55%
- Recent form
- 30%
50-45 across 95 graded games
11-9 across 20 graded games
3-7 across the last 10 graded games
| Date | Opponent | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | @ SEA | 2.5 | 2 | loss |
| Aug 19 | vs MIA | 2.5 | 1 | loss |
| Aug 13 | @ MIN | 2.5 | 1 | loss |
| Aug 8 | vs TOR | 2.5 | 2 | loss |
| Aug 3 | vs WSH | 2.5 | 3 | win |
Under Earned runs
- All-time hit rate
- 47%
- 2026 season
- 45%
- Recent form
- 70%
45-50 across 95 graded games
9-11 across 20 graded games
7-3 across the last 10 graded games
| Date | Opponent | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | @ SEA | 2.5 | 2 | win |
| Aug 19 | vs MIA | 2.5 | 1 | win |
| Aug 13 | @ MIN | 2.5 | 1 | win |
| Aug 8 | vs TOR | 2.5 | 2 | win |
| Aug 3 | vs WSH | 2.5 | 3 | loss |
Put this to work
- See today's live MLB props board — every market, updated through the day.
- View Aaron Nola's full fantasy trends — rolling splits across every category, not just this market.
Source: our own settled game results, refreshed with every deploy.