Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs Props: Hit Rate & Trends
How often Patrick Mahomes has cleared a passing tds number in settled games, built from our own game logs. Updated August 31, 2026.
Over Passing TDs
- All-time hit rate
- 38%
- 2025 season
- 36%
20-32 across 52 graded games
5-9 across 14 graded games
| Date | Opponent | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14 | vs LAC | 1.5 | 0 | loss |
| Dec 7 | vs HOU | 1.5 | 0 | loss |
| Nov 27 | @ DAL | 2.5 | 4 | win |
| Nov 23 | vs IND | 1.5 | 0 | loss |
| Nov 16 | @ DEN | 1.5 | 1 | loss |
Under Passing TDs
- All-time hit rate
- 62%
- 2025 season
- 64%
32-20 across 52 graded games
9-5 across 14 graded games
| Date | Opponent | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14 | vs LAC | 1.5 | 0 | win |
| Dec 7 | vs HOU | 1.5 | 0 | win |
| Nov 27 | @ DAL | 2.5 | 4 | loss |
| Nov 23 | vs IND | 1.5 | 0 | win |
| Nov 16 | @ DEN | 1.5 | 1 | win |
Put this to work
- See today's live NFL props board — every market, updated through the day.
- View Patrick Mahomes's full fantasy trends — rolling splits across every category, not just this market.
Source: our own settled game results, refreshed with every deploy.